new bollywod: National

AGRICULTURE : Secret of Modi’s success

When Narendra Modi won the 2007 state election in Gujarat, the media focused on Hindu-Muslim issues. Some journalists highlighted rapid industrial development that had made Gujarat India’s fastest-growing state. I mentioned Gujarat’s successful port-led development.

However, an excellent new study suggests that the secret of Modi’s success lay in agriculture, an area completely neglected by political analysts. Ashok Gulati, Tushaar Shah and Ganga Sreedhar have written an IFPRI paper, ‘agricultural Performance in Gujarat Since 2000’, which highlights something few people know — that Gujarat’s agricultural performance is by far the best in India. Between 2000-01 and 2007-08 agricultural value added grew at a phenomenal 9.6% per year (despite a major drought in 2002). This is more than double India’s agricultural growth rate, and much faster than Punjab’s farm growth in the green revolution heyday. Indeed, 9.6% agricultural growth is among the fastest rates recorded anywhere in the world. That drives home the magnitude of Gujarat’s performance.

Since the bulk of Gujarat’s population is still rural, this mega-boom in agriculture must have created millions of satisfied voters. Hence it must have played a major role in Modi’s victory. Yet I did not see a single media analyst mention it.

Gujarat is drought prone, with 70% of its area classified as semi-arid and arid. Although journalists focus on the Sardar Sarovar Project, its canal network is hopelessly incomplete, and currently irrigates only 0.1 million hectares. No less than 82% of irrigation in the state comes from tubewells, which have depleted groundwater. By the mid-1990s, groundwater extraction exceeded natural recharge in 31 talukas, and 90% of the safe extraction yield in another 12 talukas.

In the 1990s, the state along with grass-roots organisations embarked on decentralised water harvesting. This included the building of check dams, village tanks, and bori-bunds (built with gunny sacks stuffed with mud). During the 2007 election campaign, the Congress slogan was ‘chak de, chak de Gujarat’. I heard Modi say at a rally that his reply was “check dam, check dam Gujarat.” I did not realise at the time how significant this really was.

The IFPRI study says that 10,700 check dams were built up to 2000, and helped drought-proof 32,000 hectares. That sounds a lot. But subsequently, under Modi, Gujarat has built ten times as many check dams! He could well say ‘chak de, check dam’.

"No religion is perfect in this world"